Exhibition Game Thoughts

Hey guys, a bit of a shorter one this time around. I can't wait for the season to start for real and give me lots more fodder for this blog.

-Still lots of tension between Ryan Johansen and the Columbus Blue Jackets. Increasingly looks like he won't be starting the season. And even though Jayden Schwartz reached an agreement with the Blues it looks like Johansen will have some company in RFAs Torey Krug and Reilly Smith, who are still unsigned. I can't recall off the top of my head a year with so many RFAs holding out for better offers. I'm really surprised it's going this sour in Columbus, but apparently this isn't the first time they've had problems negotiating with Kurt Overhardt (Johansen's agent) who also represents CBJ prospect Kerby Rychel.

-On the WHL front, man do the Brandon Wheat Kings look like a force to be reckoned with this year. They just got Jayce Hawryluk and John Quenneville back from NHL camps, adding to an offence that  already featured all kinds of firepower, including top-of-the-line Bantam draft picks Kale Clague and Nolan Patrick, as well as 2015 draft eligible forward Jesse Gabrielle. They're off to a 4-0 start and, having just got their two most dangerous offensive players from last year back, show no signs of slowing down. Keep an eye on them, on Gabrielle in particular. If he keeps this pace up, he'll shoot up the 2015 draft rankings like a rocket.

-In the Winnipeg Jets exhibition games, I'm getting a clearer feel for what the team should look like this year. Less of Chris Thorburn and more of Anthony Peluso would be nice. Getting Adam Lowry on the third line would be very nice. He forechecks better than any other player on the Jets, and his long reach and good speed make him a perfect penalty killer. As for Nik Ehlers, he's not ready yet but just you wait. The kid is flat out electric, and plays with a physical edge I didn't expect from the young man. Give him another year. This kid's offensive skills are off the charts. Nic Petan, though small, looks like the power play specialist of the future for the Jets. His head for the game is unparalleled. I would have liked the Jets to have given Scott Kosmachuk more of a look, but I guess they felt Kossy need some seasoning in the AHL.

-For the players who are assured roster spots with the Jets, I actually liked how Grant Clitsome looked the other night. He doesn't appear to have lost a step in spite of his injury troubles last year. I liked his game. Ondrej Pavelec's? Not so much. Here's hoping Michael Hutchinson supplants him early this year.

-I haven't been able to watch many Avs games I'm afraid, but from the little I have been able to see I can tell you that the team will be much the same as last year except for one major difference: Nathan MacKinnon. The reports out of Denver were no lies, folks. This kid has gotten stronger. He shrugged off Alexei Emelin with ease on one play in the game against Montreal, then walked out of the corner and gave Tyson Barrie a sweet feed, which Barrie cashed. Regression my hat; fancy stats geeks can enjoy their humble pie at the end of the year when the Avs make the playoffs.

-As for the fancy stats geeks themselves, I have some disturbing news for you: the fact that the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs hired a bunch of Corsi experts is not a complement for you guys. Those are desperate teams making moves that reek of desperation. When the games are played on Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, maybe I'll start taking Corsi and Fenwick more seriously. Until then, I prefer the traditional hockey fan's method of, you know, actually watching the games to determine which teams are good and bad.

-Seriously though, in response to some fancy-stats anti-Avalanche arguments on a more thoughtful level, I get that certain Avs players shot above their average percentage last year, and that worries you. It's a reasonable worry. However, if you actually watch the goals the Avs got last year, those worries fade. A lot of the goals that, for example, Gabe Landeskog and Ryan O'Reilly scored, were scored either on breakaways or after they had received passes from Duchene or MacKinnon that put them in scoring areas where they couldn't possibly miss. Most people would have greater-than-average shooting percentages if they had open nets to shoot at the way Landeskog and O'Reilly often did last year, thanks to their centermen. The Avs take quality shots, and get most of their shots from prime scoring areas, as opposed to the fringes of the ice. In the Avs case, where most of their shots are being taken from areas where I could probably score once in a while, the high shooting percentages are explicable. Don't believe me? Watch the goals the Avs got last year. Some of them are tap ins after great passing, some are just good shots that would beat any goalie, some are on breakaways, and more than a few are just nice goals in general. From those places, a high shooting percentage is not a mystery, which is why watching the games is still the most important part of any hockey analysis.