Hey guys, a bit of a shorter one this time around. I can't wait for the season to start for real and give me lots more fodder for this blog.
-Still lots of tension between Ryan Johansen and the Columbus Blue Jackets. Increasingly looks like he won't be starting the season. And even though Jayden Schwartz reached an agreement with the Blues it looks like Johansen will have some company in RFAs Torey Krug and Reilly Smith, who are still unsigned. I can't recall off the top of my head a year with so many RFAs holding out for better offers. I'm really surprised it's going this sour in Columbus, but apparently this isn't the first time they've had problems negotiating with Kurt Overhardt (Johansen's agent) who also represents CBJ prospect Kerby Rychel.
-On the WHL front, man do the Brandon Wheat Kings look like a force to be reckoned with this year. They just got Jayce Hawryluk and John Quenneville back from NHL camps, adding to an offence that already featured all kinds of firepower, including top-of-the-line Bantam draft picks Kale Clague and Nolan Patrick, as well as 2015 draft eligible forward Jesse Gabrielle. They're off to a 4-0 start and, having just got their two most dangerous offensive players from last year back, show no signs of slowing down. Keep an eye on them, on Gabrielle in particular. If he keeps this pace up, he'll shoot up the 2015 draft rankings like a rocket.
-In the Winnipeg Jets exhibition games, I'm getting a clearer feel for what the team should look like this year. Less of Chris Thorburn and more of Anthony Peluso would be nice. Getting Adam Lowry on the third line would be very nice. He forechecks better than any other player on the Jets, and his long reach and good speed make him a perfect penalty killer. As for Nik Ehlers, he's not ready yet but just you wait. The kid is flat out electric, and plays with a physical edge I didn't expect from the young man. Give him another year. This kid's offensive skills are off the charts. Nic Petan, though small, looks like the power play specialist of the future for the Jets. His head for the game is unparalleled. I would have liked the Jets to have given Scott Kosmachuk more of a look, but I guess they felt Kossy need some seasoning in the AHL.
-For the players who are assured roster spots with the Jets, I actually liked how Grant Clitsome looked the other night. He doesn't appear to have lost a step in spite of his injury troubles last year. I liked his game. Ondrej Pavelec's? Not so much. Here's hoping Michael Hutchinson supplants him early this year.
-I haven't been able to watch many Avs games I'm afraid, but from the little I have been able to see I can tell you that the team will be much the same as last year except for one major difference: Nathan MacKinnon. The reports out of Denver were no lies, folks. This kid has gotten stronger. He shrugged off Alexei Emelin with ease on one play in the game against Montreal, then walked out of the corner and gave Tyson Barrie a sweet feed, which Barrie cashed. Regression my hat; fancy stats geeks can enjoy their humble pie at the end of the year when the Avs make the playoffs.
-As for the fancy stats geeks themselves, I have some disturbing news for you: the fact that the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs hired a bunch of Corsi experts is not a complement for you guys. Those are desperate teams making moves that reek of desperation. When the games are played on Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, maybe I'll start taking Corsi and Fenwick more seriously. Until then, I prefer the traditional hockey fan's method of, you know, actually watching the games to determine which teams are good and bad.
-Seriously though, in response to some fancy-stats anti-Avalanche arguments on a more thoughtful level, I get that certain Avs players shot above their average percentage last year, and that worries you. It's a reasonable worry. However, if you actually watch the goals the Avs got last year, those worries fade. A lot of the goals that, for example, Gabe Landeskog and Ryan O'Reilly scored, were scored either on breakaways or after they had received passes from Duchene or MacKinnon that put them in scoring areas where they couldn't possibly miss. Most people would have greater-than-average shooting percentages if they had open nets to shoot at the way Landeskog and O'Reilly often did last year, thanks to their centermen. The Avs take quality shots, and get most of their shots from prime scoring areas, as opposed to the fringes of the ice. In the Avs case, where most of their shots are being taken from areas where I could probably score once in a while, the high shooting percentages are explicable. Don't believe me? Watch the goals the Avs got last year. Some of them are tap ins after great passing, some are just good shots that would beat any goalie, some are on breakaways, and more than a few are just nice goals in general. From those places, a high shooting percentage is not a mystery, which is why watching the games is still the most important part of any hockey analysis.
Sunday, September 28, 2014
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
Training Camps and Roster Battles
With the conclusion of the young stars tournament in Penticton and the opening of main training camps around the NHL coming up, there's lots more to write about this week than there was last week, that's for sure. This time of year always comes with its own interesting set of side-plots to go along with the main camps, almost all of which focus on the battles for roster spots and ice time in the camps. Who looks good? Which rookie looks ready to make the jump? Who's battling who for that spot in the top six? For the Jets and Avs, it was a busy week, with many more busy weeks ahead of them. Hockey, at long last, is in the air, and after a long summer it's great to be able to get pumped for some hockey news again.
-A quick note from elsewhere in the NHL: Ryan Johansen was reportedly offered, and turned down, a 6 year, $46 million dollar contract offer from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Yikes. And Avs fans thought the negotiations with Ryan O'Reilly were tense. I get that Johansen scored 30 last year and is a budding power forward, but the contracts he's been turning down are getting a little ridiculous. Both CBJ President John Davidson and Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen have called out Johansen's agent, Kurt Overhardt, and accused him of stalling the process, being unreasonable in his demands, and trying to rook them. Davidson went so far as to accuse him of "extortion". There's no way this story has a happy ending.
-The Jets participated in the prospects tournament in Penticton last week, and a few prospects in particular stood out. Here, in no particular order:
-Adam Lowry looks ready for the NHL. He already has pro size and speed, and he displayed an aggressiveness on the forecheck that the Jets were sorely lacking last year. He fought, showed some nice hands and good drive, and threw some devastating hits. The Jets are looking for someone to slot in on the third line, and I nominate Lowry. I really don't want to see another year of fourth liners/AHLers playing top minutes in Winnipeg.
-Nic Petan is the perfect forward to set up your power play. When he stands along the wall, you can just see him looking for openings. His head is up, his eyes are open, his hands are moving and he's just waiting for a seam to open up so he can thread a perfect pass over to someone. When he does make a pass, it's pinpoint precise, and he seems to be able to see guys that others miss. Every power play needs a guy with that kind of vision and puck movement skill. That's not to say he's only useful on the power play though. Petan showed great speed and hands, and also a high compete level. For a smaller guy, he's not afraid to battle either.
-What more need be said about Nikolaj Ehlers? The guy is flat out electric. He can skate faster than everybody else, stickhandle better, and shoot better. He just seems to be operating on a higher talent level than everybody else whenever he has the puck. Having said that, he does need to put on weight and gain strength. There were a few times in Penticton he was knocked off the puck too easily. With his skill set, however, a bright NHL career is not far away.
-Getting over to the Avs, I hear great things about Duncan Siemens at the rookie camp that opened this week. I'm unfortunately not able to be there myself, since I live, oh, a few hundred miles away, but various reports out of camp say Siemens looks like a man amongst boys. He's a punishing physical player with a mean streak and decent puck moving skills, exactly the kind of d-man that would be welcome in Colorado (or anywhere).
-Chris Bigras, while a very different player from Duncan Siemens, is similarly turning heads this week in Denver. It sounds as though the drills/competition are almost too easy for him. He will never be a punishing hitter the way Siemens is, but Bigras thinks the game with the best of them, has good foot speed and is almost never out of position. Another solid defenseman in the Avs system.
-Another defensive rookie getting his share of attention in Denver is Mason Geertsen. Drafted as a nasty, shutdown defenseman with a propensity for fighting, Geertsen has grown beyond that. Though he'll never be confused with an offensive dynamo, his skating and puck movement have grown leaps and bounds, all while keeping the same mean streak that got him drafted in the first place. He'll likely go back to Vancouver for one more year in the WHL, which he will spend mentoring (and likely protecting at times) first overall bantam pick Tyler Benson.
-Avs fans have wondered a lot about the logjam of contracts on defence. I think they're going to be pleasantly surprised with Zach Redmond. An indication to Avs fans that he's a good player is just how upset Jets fans were when management let him walk. Some have said Redmond will be "this year's Nick Holden" i.e. the guy who comes out of nowhere to have a great offensive season and be a contributor. Redmond has size (6'2 and 205 lbs.) speed, and good puck movement skills. He's also a very underrated passer, and could end up being one of the better bang-for-buck pickups from this summer.
That's all for this week. More as training camps unfold and pre-season starts.
-A quick note from elsewhere in the NHL: Ryan Johansen was reportedly offered, and turned down, a 6 year, $46 million dollar contract offer from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Yikes. And Avs fans thought the negotiations with Ryan O'Reilly were tense. I get that Johansen scored 30 last year and is a budding power forward, but the contracts he's been turning down are getting a little ridiculous. Both CBJ President John Davidson and Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen have called out Johansen's agent, Kurt Overhardt, and accused him of stalling the process, being unreasonable in his demands, and trying to rook them. Davidson went so far as to accuse him of "extortion". There's no way this story has a happy ending.
-The Jets participated in the prospects tournament in Penticton last week, and a few prospects in particular stood out. Here, in no particular order:
-Adam Lowry looks ready for the NHL. He already has pro size and speed, and he displayed an aggressiveness on the forecheck that the Jets were sorely lacking last year. He fought, showed some nice hands and good drive, and threw some devastating hits. The Jets are looking for someone to slot in on the third line, and I nominate Lowry. I really don't want to see another year of fourth liners/AHLers playing top minutes in Winnipeg.
-Nic Petan is the perfect forward to set up your power play. When he stands along the wall, you can just see him looking for openings. His head is up, his eyes are open, his hands are moving and he's just waiting for a seam to open up so he can thread a perfect pass over to someone. When he does make a pass, it's pinpoint precise, and he seems to be able to see guys that others miss. Every power play needs a guy with that kind of vision and puck movement skill. That's not to say he's only useful on the power play though. Petan showed great speed and hands, and also a high compete level. For a smaller guy, he's not afraid to battle either.
-What more need be said about Nikolaj Ehlers? The guy is flat out electric. He can skate faster than everybody else, stickhandle better, and shoot better. He just seems to be operating on a higher talent level than everybody else whenever he has the puck. Having said that, he does need to put on weight and gain strength. There were a few times in Penticton he was knocked off the puck too easily. With his skill set, however, a bright NHL career is not far away.
-Getting over to the Avs, I hear great things about Duncan Siemens at the rookie camp that opened this week. I'm unfortunately not able to be there myself, since I live, oh, a few hundred miles away, but various reports out of camp say Siemens looks like a man amongst boys. He's a punishing physical player with a mean streak and decent puck moving skills, exactly the kind of d-man that would be welcome in Colorado (or anywhere).
-Chris Bigras, while a very different player from Duncan Siemens, is similarly turning heads this week in Denver. It sounds as though the drills/competition are almost too easy for him. He will never be a punishing hitter the way Siemens is, but Bigras thinks the game with the best of them, has good foot speed and is almost never out of position. Another solid defenseman in the Avs system.
-Another defensive rookie getting his share of attention in Denver is Mason Geertsen. Drafted as a nasty, shutdown defenseman with a propensity for fighting, Geertsen has grown beyond that. Though he'll never be confused with an offensive dynamo, his skating and puck movement have grown leaps and bounds, all while keeping the same mean streak that got him drafted in the first place. He'll likely go back to Vancouver for one more year in the WHL, which he will spend mentoring (and likely protecting at times) first overall bantam pick Tyler Benson.
-Avs fans have wondered a lot about the logjam of contracts on defence. I think they're going to be pleasantly surprised with Zach Redmond. An indication to Avs fans that he's a good player is just how upset Jets fans were when management let him walk. Some have said Redmond will be "this year's Nick Holden" i.e. the guy who comes out of nowhere to have a great offensive season and be a contributor. Redmond has size (6'2 and 205 lbs.) speed, and good puck movement skills. He's also a very underrated passer, and could end up being one of the better bang-for-buck pickups from this summer.
That's all for this week. More as training camps unfold and pre-season starts.
Tuesday, September 09, 2014
Welcome to Board Play!
So, my name is Rob Mahon, I'm a new member of the blogging community with lots of hockey-related thoughts to get off my chest. I'll be stopping in at the very least every week, more if there's something I really need to get out there. This blog will focus on hockey-related news and analysis, and within that I'm going to focus heavily on my two favourite teams, the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets. Because one of those teams is poised for a great year and the other probably not so much, there are going to be some contradictory moods to the posts at times. When the two teams play against each other is when this post will get really strange but don't worry, strange is the bread and butter of the internet, so I should be right at home here.
I'm also going to talk a lot about junior hockey, with a focus on certain prospects for upcoming draft years and prominent drafted players, as well as a few specific teams I really like. Some other news, like information about junior hockey here in Manitoba, may creep in here from time to time as well. Since hockey season is still, sadly, a month or so away, news may be a bit thin on the ground, but I'll try to throw in a few tidbits, particularly about the training camps of both the Avs and the Jets, as well as information about the rookie tournament in Penticton, in which the Jets will be appearing. So here, for the first week of my blog, are a few thoughts about the upcoming training camps.
- It's actually, statistically, pretty rare for newly drafted players to make the lineup right out of training camp their first year. Every year you get exceptional players like Nathan Mackinnon, Sean Couturier, Gabriel Landeskog, Taylor Hall etc. but we forget how few in number those players actually are compared to the number of people drafted. First overall picks tend to jump right in, yes, but they are the exception. You don't see, for example, tenth overall picks jump straight to the NHL very often, with last years Valeri Nichushkin being an exception. A lot of players in recent years get the standard seven game tryout before being sent back to junior, with Mark Scheifele being an example close to home. But he's not the only one. Mikhail Grigorenko, Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan Strome, and Nikita Zadorov (a lot of Buffalo Sabres on that list) being examples of players who started the year in the NHL but were sent back to junior.
-With that said, there are a few players from this year's draft class who look like they could stick. Aaron Ekblad has nothing more to prove at the junior level, and the Panthers need defensemen so badly that he could step right in with ease. All the scouts agree he's physically and mentally mature enough to go straight into the big leagues, a rarity for a defenseman. As for the second overall pick, Sam Reinhart, good luck sending him back to junior. Three seasons of him terrorizing the WHL were quite enough, and while Reinhart doesn't impose physically the way the 6'4 Ekblad does, his game is very cerebral; he sees the ice beautifully, a skill that translates to the NHL better than strength, because being the strongest kid in junior puts you behind a lot of NHLers, but seeing the ice better puts you in a category all your own. As for the third overall pick, Leon Draisaitl, I can't see the Oilers keeping him out of the lineup, since he's already one of their biggest forwards and among the most talented. A skilled forward of his size is exactly what the doctor ordered in Oil Country.
-Speaking of Draisaitl, Jets fans will get a chance to see him in action at the Penticton Young Stars Tournament from September 12-15. All Jets games will be streamed live on the Jets website, and if you want a good look at the rookies, this is your chance to get it. The Avs, who do not participate in a rookie tournament, will have to wait until training camp (starting September 15) to see guys like Connor Bleackley and Chris Bigras.
-The Jets are going to have a talented roster in Penticton, but every team has players to watch. In addition to Draisaitl, the Oilers have invited small but ultra-talented Vladimir Tkachev to the tournament as a potential sign-ee. Does that name sound familiar? If you're a fan of the QMJHL's Moncton Wildcats it absolutely does. This past season was Tkachev's first in North America and the diminutive forward didn't disappoint, putting up 30 points in 20 games for the Wildcats. Other Canadian fans will remember Tkachev as that silky-smooth skater with the ridiculous hands from the World Juniors and the Subway Super Series.
-There are times when I want to see the Jets clean house as far as the staff goes, but one group I hope they keep if that ever happens are the scouts. The lineup the Jets are sending to Penticton looks like something special. Sure, Nikolai Ehlers was kind of obvious, but getting players like Scott Kosmachuk, Adam Lowry and J.C. Lipon in the later rounds was some shrewd drafting. Kosmachuk and Ehlers, in case you're wondering, are likely to be line mates in Penticton. One Jets official said as much during the prospects camp back in early July, and there's no reason to think the Jets have changed their minds. Kosmachuk is a natural scorer, as his 49 goals in the last OHL season would indicate, and he and the supremely skilled Ehlers together could be a real treat to watch. As I said, the Jets games are being streamed on their official website, and I encourage you guys to watch.
-As for the Avs, there's not a ton of news this week, but I am looking forward to seeing how Connor Bleackley handles his first taste of pro hockey. While he likely won't play in the NHL this season, anyone who can wear a letter for Brent Sutter at the age of 17 is mature beyond his years. More importantly for Avs fans, news out of Andy O'Brien's camp is that MacKinnon is bigger and stronger and faster than ever. Remember the speed he showed last year, that crazy, mind-bending speed? Picture that, but now make him faster and harder to knock off the puck. The Avs may have drafted a true monster, and Bob McKenzie himself has taken notice here: http://www.nicholsonhockey.com/worthreading/2014/9/9/mckenzie-skys-the-limit-for-avs-mackinnon
I'm also going to talk a lot about junior hockey, with a focus on certain prospects for upcoming draft years and prominent drafted players, as well as a few specific teams I really like. Some other news, like information about junior hockey here in Manitoba, may creep in here from time to time as well. Since hockey season is still, sadly, a month or so away, news may be a bit thin on the ground, but I'll try to throw in a few tidbits, particularly about the training camps of both the Avs and the Jets, as well as information about the rookie tournament in Penticton, in which the Jets will be appearing. So here, for the first week of my blog, are a few thoughts about the upcoming training camps.
- It's actually, statistically, pretty rare for newly drafted players to make the lineup right out of training camp their first year. Every year you get exceptional players like Nathan Mackinnon, Sean Couturier, Gabriel Landeskog, Taylor Hall etc. but we forget how few in number those players actually are compared to the number of people drafted. First overall picks tend to jump right in, yes, but they are the exception. You don't see, for example, tenth overall picks jump straight to the NHL very often, with last years Valeri Nichushkin being an exception. A lot of players in recent years get the standard seven game tryout before being sent back to junior, with Mark Scheifele being an example close to home. But he's not the only one. Mikhail Grigorenko, Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan Strome, and Nikita Zadorov (a lot of Buffalo Sabres on that list) being examples of players who started the year in the NHL but were sent back to junior.
-With that said, there are a few players from this year's draft class who look like they could stick. Aaron Ekblad has nothing more to prove at the junior level, and the Panthers need defensemen so badly that he could step right in with ease. All the scouts agree he's physically and mentally mature enough to go straight into the big leagues, a rarity for a defenseman. As for the second overall pick, Sam Reinhart, good luck sending him back to junior. Three seasons of him terrorizing the WHL were quite enough, and while Reinhart doesn't impose physically the way the 6'4 Ekblad does, his game is very cerebral; he sees the ice beautifully, a skill that translates to the NHL better than strength, because being the strongest kid in junior puts you behind a lot of NHLers, but seeing the ice better puts you in a category all your own. As for the third overall pick, Leon Draisaitl, I can't see the Oilers keeping him out of the lineup, since he's already one of their biggest forwards and among the most talented. A skilled forward of his size is exactly what the doctor ordered in Oil Country.
-Speaking of Draisaitl, Jets fans will get a chance to see him in action at the Penticton Young Stars Tournament from September 12-15. All Jets games will be streamed live on the Jets website, and if you want a good look at the rookies, this is your chance to get it. The Avs, who do not participate in a rookie tournament, will have to wait until training camp (starting September 15) to see guys like Connor Bleackley and Chris Bigras.
-The Jets are going to have a talented roster in Penticton, but every team has players to watch. In addition to Draisaitl, the Oilers have invited small but ultra-talented Vladimir Tkachev to the tournament as a potential sign-ee. Does that name sound familiar? If you're a fan of the QMJHL's Moncton Wildcats it absolutely does. This past season was Tkachev's first in North America and the diminutive forward didn't disappoint, putting up 30 points in 20 games for the Wildcats. Other Canadian fans will remember Tkachev as that silky-smooth skater with the ridiculous hands from the World Juniors and the Subway Super Series.
-There are times when I want to see the Jets clean house as far as the staff goes, but one group I hope they keep if that ever happens are the scouts. The lineup the Jets are sending to Penticton looks like something special. Sure, Nikolai Ehlers was kind of obvious, but getting players like Scott Kosmachuk, Adam Lowry and J.C. Lipon in the later rounds was some shrewd drafting. Kosmachuk and Ehlers, in case you're wondering, are likely to be line mates in Penticton. One Jets official said as much during the prospects camp back in early July, and there's no reason to think the Jets have changed their minds. Kosmachuk is a natural scorer, as his 49 goals in the last OHL season would indicate, and he and the supremely skilled Ehlers together could be a real treat to watch. As I said, the Jets games are being streamed on their official website, and I encourage you guys to watch.
-As for the Avs, there's not a ton of news this week, but I am looking forward to seeing how Connor Bleackley handles his first taste of pro hockey. While he likely won't play in the NHL this season, anyone who can wear a letter for Brent Sutter at the age of 17 is mature beyond his years. More importantly for Avs fans, news out of Andy O'Brien's camp is that MacKinnon is bigger and stronger and faster than ever. Remember the speed he showed last year, that crazy, mind-bending speed? Picture that, but now make him faster and harder to knock off the puck. The Avs may have drafted a true monster, and Bob McKenzie himself has taken notice here: http://www.nicholsonhockey.com/worthreading/2014/9/9/mckenzie-skys-the-limit-for-avs-mackinnon
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